Tesla Reports 486,532 Q3 Deliveries, Topping Analyst Forecasts by About 25,000

Tesla shares closed at $370.59 on Friday, Oct. 2, 2026, up 4.65%, after the company reported third-quarter deliveries of 486,532 vehicles, the Motley Fool reported. That was about 25,000 more than consensus estimates.

Yahoo Finance said Tesla's own compiled consensus was 461,974 deliveries. It added that the stock rose more than 5% at one point during the session.

How the Quarter Compares

Model 3 and Model Y vehicles accounted for 478,237 of the deliveries. Tesla also produced 464,391 vehicles in the quarter, 457,387 of them Model 3 and Model Y.

Deliveries rose about 1.3% from the second quarter but were about 2% below the same quarter a year earlier, when Tesla posted its highest quarterly deliveries. Production rose nearly 3% from the second quarter and exceeded last year's 447,450.

Tesla also deployed 13.7 gigawatt-hours (a unit of stored energy) of energy-storage products, up from 13.5 in the second quarter and 12.5 a year earlier.

Federal EV tax credits expired in September 2025, the Motley Fool noted.

Analyst Forecasts Had Varied Widely

Yahoo Finance listed several pre-report estimates. Goldman Sachs had cut its forecast to 435,000 from 490,000, and StoneX projected 446,500. Barclays expected 475,000, while JPMorgan expected 482,000 after lowering an earlier estimate of 516,000.

Gene Munster, an analyst at Deepwater Asset Management, said Tesla's year-over-year decline of about 2% compared with the roughly 7% drop the Street had expected.

He wrote on X that Tesla appears to be regaining EV market share because of its value for the price and growing interest in Full Self-Driving (FSD), its driver-assistance software.

Munster sees 2027 delivery growth above 15%, against a Street estimate of roughly 9%, according to Yahoo Finance.

Market Reaction and Rivals

Tesla traded about 53.9 million shares, roughly 39% above its three-month average of 38.7 million. The S&P 500 closed at 7,723, up 0.74%, and the Nasdaq Composite finished at 27,191, up 1.19%.

Rivian Automotive fell 3.12% to $14.30, even though the Motley Fool said it announced record third-quarter deliveries and reaffirmed its full-year guidance. Lucid Group closed at $4.13, down 1.43%.

Despite Friday's gain, Tesla is down about 15% so far in 2026, Yahoo Finance said. It is the weakest performer among the Magnificent Seven group of stocks.

What Comes Next

Tesla will report full third-quarter financial results on Oct. 21. Wall Street is watching whether the delivery strength carries into earnings and guidance, according to the Motley Fool.

Tesla's second-quarter revenue was $28.2 billion, up 26% from a year earlier. The company launched its Cybercab robotaxi service in September and began delivering its Semi trucks, the Motley Fool reported.